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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/29 11:25

   Soy Trade Leads Grain Futures Higher at Midday

   Grain trade is higher with soybean trade leading again at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow up 3. The interest rate 
products are higher. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are higher with 
crude up $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
down $3.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with light buying supported by 
strength in the soybean trade. Outside markets are generally friendly with a 
weaker dollar and firmer crude oil trade. Weather remains open for harvest to 
advance in the near term, while South America is generally expected to see 
improved planting pace, but overall, acres are the bigger question. The weekly 
ethanol production report showed production up 41,000 barrels per day, and 
stocks down 901,000 barrels, adding support to the ethanol futures. December 
chart support is the 10-day moving average at $3.56, then the 20- and 50-day 
moving averages at $3.47. Resistance is the high from Tuesday at $3.72.    


   Soybean trade is 16 to 19 cents higher this at midday with commercial buying 
surfacing again. Meal has retaken the lead in the product trade, up $18 to $19 
overnight, with oil up 70 to 80 points. South American weather is overall 
expected to show some improvement in the near term, with planting needing to 
catch up to the average pace. With soybean harvest on the downhill slide in the 
U.S., late harvest pressure from the big crop could linger for a while with 
further production increases expected on the November monthly report out a week 
from Monday. The November 10-day moving average is at $9.79 and 20-day at $9.58 
which is support for now. Resistance is the recent high at $10.34. The biggest 
upside potential may still be short covering versus weak shorts that entered 
the market late.   


   Wheat trade is 1 to 5 higher across the three contracts at midday, following 
the row-crop trade higher with support from the weaker dollar. The 20-day 
moving averages should be viewed as important support this week with the upside 
move stalling; a move below them would likely generate fresh speculative 
selling. This level is at $5.10 on the December Chicago, $5.90 on KC and $5.63 
on the December Minneapolis. Resistance is the recent highs at $6.15 on the KC 
contract. The bull argument needs a bigger weather issue globally or a weaker 
dollar trend to improve U.S. export competitiveness, and we have moved slowly 
in that direction. Weather remains neutral globally with some trouble spots 
worldwide, especially in Australia and some cold weather issues moving into 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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