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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/02 11:31

   Grains Quiet at Midday

   Grain trade holding around unchanged at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are lower with the Dow futures down 80 points. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 60 points lower. Energies 
are lower with crude 0.60 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold down $0.50.


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade grinding along near the 
upper end of the recent range. Harvest progress should continue into the 
weekend, keeping some harvest pressure on. Ethanol margins remain fairly stable 
in the near term with crude and corn fairly range bound, and ethanol futures 
edging slightly higher. On the nearby December chart resistance is the 100-day 
at $3.89, which we have been able to move above, but not hold above so far, 
just ahead of the $3.95 September high which is next chart resistance then the 
200-day at 3.99 after that. Support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.82, 
then the $3.57 1/2 contract low. Trade focus will return toward the yield 
reports going towards the weekend.


   Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents lower, migrating back to the middle of the 
recent range. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. 
Soybean harvest should move fairly quickly this week with early yields 
remaining fairly strong, keeping supply pressure on the market. The export 
market was quiet to end the week. Early South American planting will pick up in 
the near term, with dryness in Northern Brazil for now. On the November chart 
the contract low at $8.53 1/4 is long term support with the 20-day moving 
average at $8.77 nearby support which we have edged below at midday. Resistance 
is at the $9.02 high seen earlier in the week, then the 50-day at $9.11. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents lower across the three contracts at midday 
following the lead of the row crops overnight. Concerns over dry planting 
conditions in Ukraine and Russia have limited selling interest on breaks; while 
the dollar continues to chop in the upper end of the range keep U.S. origin 
more expensive on the world export market. With Russian prices rising, the U.S. 
competition gap could be reduced in the near term, especially if the dollar 
weakness picks up post jobs report. U.S. winter wheat planting progress should 
continue to move along at a good clip. On the Kansas City December chart 
support is at the 10-day at $4.97 and 20-day moving average at $4.89 with 
resistance at the $5.12 recent high then the $5.35 100-day moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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