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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/21 11:18

   Soybeans Lead Grains Higher at Midday

   Grain trade is firm across the board at midday, but off the highs.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 150 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 32 lower. Energies 
are mixed with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
higher with gold up $7.


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with short covering and light 
chart buying noted. Ethanol margins have stabilized in recent days, and remain 
positive but well off the recent highs with blender margins seeing increase 
pressure over the last week. Harvest progress should advance substantially this 
week, but farmers are still struggling with high moisture corn in many areas. 
Yield reports remain strong for the most part, and harvest pressure should 
increase heading toward Friday. Harvest progress could surpass the 50% level on 
the weekly report next Monday. Soybeans have been getting higher priority but 
as some wrapup their bean harvest; corn will be in full swing by the weekend. 
The weekly crop progress report showed corn 93% mature vs. 94% on average, and 
31% harvest vs. 53% on average. On the December chart the $3.47 10-day moving 
average is support, with the 20-day at $3.37 below that; resistance is the 
$3.58 level which is the one month high printed last week. The 100-day up at 
$3.90 is the next upside major moving average. Trade has been flirting on both 
sides of the $3.48 50-day the past week. 


   Soybean trade is 12 to 14 cents higher at midday with commercial buying and 
light short covering noted by funds. Meal is $10 to $11 higher and oil is flat 
to 10 points lower. Harvest should advance rapidly on soybeans this week, with 
the weather forecast hinting at only limited potential delays. South American 
weather will continue to be a potential issue with the forecasts lacking 
consistency for now but at least some near-term moisture in many areas. The 
weekly progress report showed 91% dropping leaves in line with the average, and 
53% harvested vs. 66% on average. On the November chart beans are back above 
the 10-day moving average at $9.48, with the 20-day moving average at $9.36 the 
next level of support. Resistance is the high from last week at $9.78 1/2 which 
is just below the $9.82 50-day moving average. Harvest pressure should 
intensify this week for beans to help limit upside.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents higher at midday across the three exchanges at 
midday despite the firmer dollar. Spillover support from row crops and light 
chart buying is noted for the higher midday action. The more open weather 
pattern should allow wheat drilling to catch up in Kansas this week. The 
overall crop should be able to establish itself early; lingering drought 
conditions on the Southern Plains could raise concerns quickly if the current 
dry pattern persists. Australian weather continues to raise questions with 
dryness over a good chunk of their wheat belt, and the Russian crop has some 
trouble spots early but overall is in ok shape. The weekly progress report 
showed 76% planted vs. 77% on average, and 56% emerged vs. 50% on average. On 
the December Kansas City chart, wheat has support at the 10-day at $5.91, with 
resistance at $6.15, which was the high from last week.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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