September 25, 2014
Portland Price Trends
09-02-13 01-01-14 08-01-14 09-18-14 09-25-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.40 7.03 6.92 6.65 6.58
White Club 7.60 7.63 8.17 9.15 9.43
HRS 14% 8.24 8.10 8.31 8.80 8.86
HRW 11.5% 8.75 7.62 7.62 7.19 7.19
#2 Corn (ton) 280.00 186.00 185.00 171.00 175.00
#2 Barley 180.00 155.00 175.00 155.00 150.00
Wheat...Firming basis levels again helped stabilize west coast wheat
markets this week. Soft white basis was generally up a dime this week,
with higher numbers being posted for lower protein guarantees. Hard red
winter saw a nickel improvement and hard red spring basis gained a dime.
Notable amongst the gains was a 30 cent jump in club wheat premiums, as
exporters work to meet Pacific Rim demand with a reduced crop this year.
A Pacific front dropping moisture along the west coast through the week
is expected to bring some much-needed relief to portions of the Inland
Weekly Sales...A U.S. wheat sale to Egypt this week may be signaling
that domestic prices are finally realigning with world values, but total
sales last week remained lethargic at 14.6 mb. That number was right on
track with the 4-week average and puts year-to-date demand at 472 mb and
27% behind last year. Brazil was the top buyer, booking 4.4 mb of hard
red winter and holding sales for that class at 38% under last year. Hard
red spring also outpaced the 4-week average with 5 mb to put total sales
at 150 mb and 35% above last year. Soft white wheat netted 1.2 mb for a
current year tally of 76 mb that now sets 5% below last year.
Sales-to-Date..U.S. wheat sales now stand 180 mb behind last year and
sales by-class show soft red winter accounting for 120 mb of the decline
as a record crop has China on the sidelines this year, and weaker demand
out of Brazil accounts for half of the 90 mb decline in hard red winter
sales. Soft white wheat sales are down 4 mb, missing swing business from
Yemen and Indonesia but supported by the traditional Pacific Rim buyers.
Hard red spring remains the sole gainer, as strong early-season bargain
hunting has placed sales nearly 40 mb ahead of last year.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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