November 25, 2014
Portland Price Trends
11-01-13 01-01-14 10-01-14 11-18-14 11-25-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.18 7.03 6.60 7.06 7.10
White Club 7.58 7.63 9.50 9.76 9.80
HRS 14% 8.50 8.10 8.81 9.61 9.85
HRW 11.5% 8.42 7.62 7.17 7.36 7.59
#2 Corn (ton) 173.00 186.00 173.00 190.00 195.00
#2 Barley 150.00 155.00 150.00 150.00 165.00
Wheat..A nice bounce in Chicago helped move west coast white wheat bids
back to within a nickel of recent highs today, countering what is normally
a quiet holiday week. Basis levels on all wheat remained relatively firm
with hard red spring adding another dime over the past week to 385 over;
challenging the high water marks posted only one other year over the past
20+ years when spot basis reached a high near 450 in February of 2008. A
new marketing year high in corn also helped awake the barley market from
a two-month slumber, with export bids advancing $15 a ton this week.
Shipments...Weekly export inspections showed the best week of shipping
activity in over a month, moving 16.4 mb off all ports; more than double
the 4-week average. Year-to-date loadings stand at 436 mb and 32% behind
a year ago. White wheat reported the biggest bounce relative to the 4-week
average, with 4 mb going to a list of destinations that included Indonesia,
Yemen and Taiwan. Shipments for hard red spring also rebounded to 6.9 mb,
triple the 4-week average pace, putting the year-to-date total 27% ahead
of last year.
Crop Progress...PNW winter wheat conditions showed a modest setback the
past week, with the 3-state index slipping 3 points to 337/500 as ratings
remain well below average for Washington. Moisture profiles and rainfall
totals over the past month show south Idaho losing ground on precipitation
but profiles still at 130% of normal; north central Oregon improving from
recent rainfall and approaching normal profiles; while Washington profiles
remain at roughly two-thirds of normal in the southeastern portion of the
state as precipitation stands at 70% of normal, but heavy rains are moving
through the area this week.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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