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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          08/26 12:01

   Hog Futures Lead Complex Higher 

   Strong support continues to develop through the lean hog futures market with 
traders focusing on potential fall pork demand growth. Cattle futures are 
gaining momentum at midday after spending most of the morning mixed in a narrow 
range. 

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst



GENERAL COMMENTS: 

   Lean hog futures continue to show strong support as traders are focusing on 
triple-digit gains seen in all nearby contracts. There is expected to be some 
additional focus on the potential supply issues through the end of the year as 
it appears demand may be building following the holiday weekend. Cattle futures 
are higher midday after holding moderate mixed trading ranges through most of 
the morning. Corn futures are lower at midday. September corn futures are 6 
cents per bushel lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones 
is 42 points higher while Nasdaq is up 9 points.

   LIVE CATTLE:

   Moves across the live cattle complex have bounced higher and lower through 
most of the morning with moderate to strong support redeveloping at midday. 
This could lead to additional commercial support developing before the end of 
the session Tuesday, although little encouragement is seen from beef values at 
this point. The idea that meat buyers may continue to go into the holiday 
weekend with a hand-to-mouth mentality could help to draw additional support 
into the futures complex late in the week. Cash cattle markets remain quiet 
with bids still undeveloped. It is likely that it will be the second half of 
the week although it is likely that both sides would desire to get business 
done before Friday afternoon in front of the long weekend. Asking prices are 
still not fully defined, but early bids are seen at $154 to $155 in the South 
and $245 to $248 per cwt in the North. Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, 0.32 
per cwt lower (select) and down $0.21 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement 
of 101 total loads reported (38 loads of choice cuts, 28 loads of select cuts, 
19 load- of trimmings, 16 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Light buyer support continues to trickle into the feeder cattle futures 
market. This lack of strong gains is not unexpected given the recent market 
activity in the complex. But traders continue to focus on the potential of 
moderate to firm beef market support over the long term, while still 
maintaining a tight supply level of feeder cattle for the foreseeable future. 

   LEAN HOGS:

   Aggressive gains have developed through the lean hog futures market with 
nearby contracts holding gains from $1.50 to $1.80 per cwt. But technically, 
strong additional gains are going to have to continue to be seen in order to 
indicate a longer-term market rally. Given the recent pressure in the complex, 
further market support could still be seen over the near future, with the 
market still remaining stuck in a sideways range, Which could be hard to break 
out of before the end of the month. Cash prices are higher on the National 
Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added 0.20 per cwt 
to $93.50 per cwt with the range from $90.99 to $94.50 per cwt on 816 head 
reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa Minnesota Direct morning cash 
hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.20 per cwt to $93.96 per cwt 
with the range from $91.50 to $94.50 per cwt on 690 head reported sold. The 
National Pork Plant Report is reported 194 loads selling as prices up $1.19 per 
cwt. Lean hog index for 8/22 is at $103.32 down 1.67, with a projected two-day 
index of $101.91 down 1.41.

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


(SK)

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